Date: Wed, 13 Jan 1999 03:59:58 -0500
To: izaac@setec.org

Electrical power is the Big One. This is the heart of Western Civilization.
If the power generation plants fail because of the effects of the
Millennium Bug, it's literally over for the West. We are all hooked up to
the system. But no public utility will survive if the power goes down and
stays down. No business will survive. It will be a total breakdown. As
Roberto Vacca titled his 1973 book, it would mean THE COMING DARK AGE. 

The issue here is the domino effect. Power generation in the United States
relies on coal -- in the range of 40%. The problem here is railway freight.
How can the plants get delivery of coal if the railroad system goes down
because of noncompliance? Coal delivery problems began in the winter of
1997-98. 

Then there is nuclear power, which supplies about 20% of the power
generated in the United States. What if the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
closes nuclear plants in late 1999 because they are not y2k compliant. At
present, they are not compliant. The NRC has sent a warning to all 108
nuclear plants. Take 20% of the nation's power off line in one day -- 40%
in some regions -- and what happens to the grid? 

The typical large city power plant has something in the range of 5,000
suppliers of goods and services. How will they be paid if the banks go
down? Also, how will users pay the power companies? This problem must be
dealt with now, not in 2000 and beyond. 

The grid may not go down overnight. (Then again, it may.) The problem is
erosion: the second law of thermodynamics. Things wear out. How do they
supply the plants with replacement parts if the banking system is in a
crisis? This is the problem of the division of labor. A banking failure
threatens the grid. The failure of the grid threatens everything. 

If your local power plant somehow solves these problems, what happens if
others don't solve them? What if an overloaded grid shuts down? It could
take down your local system. This is the coordination problem: among the
local generation stations, among the regional grids, and among the suppliers. 

We don't want to think about this. But the problem exists. The articles
I've posted give some hint of the magnitude of the problem. There are over
7,800 power-supplying organizations in the United States. They are all tied
together in one gigantic mainframe-controlled system that is laced with
embedded chips. Canada is tied into our system. 

Sometimes power goes down all over a region. There are several regional
districts. They are interconnected. Supposedly, the regional grids can be
separated from the others if one goes down. But this circuit-breaker
system, like everything else on the grids, relies on computers. 

"It can't happen," you say. I hope you're correct. Tell me, why can't it
happen? Please don't respond, "Because I don't want it to." 

Are you dependent on local public utilities that will go down if your local
power generation system goes down? Yes, you are. You are TOTALLY dependent,
in all likelihood. What if your local power system goes down with the
regional system? Or even the national? What if your local system actually
does get compliant, but then is pulled into the black hole of the national
power grid? Maybe it can pull out in time. Maybe the computers inside the
region are all compliant as well as integrated. Don't count on it. 

It's not good enough to get a local system y2k-compliant. Most of the power
systems of the nation must be compliant or they all go down, region by
region, in one gigantic rolling blackout. If New York City goes down, Hog
Jowls, Alabama probably will, too. 

Then so does every computer in the country, compliant or not. And if they
all go down, nobody will be able to repair any of them. There is no
tomorrow if the national power grid goes down on Jan. 1, 2000. 

Again, I am not predicting this. What I am predicting is that the
fractional reserve banking system is at risk, and that government controls
on banking will not help to repair that endangered system. I fear erosion:
the wearing out of all complex systems and the inability of engineers to
get replacement parts because of a failure in the means of payment and a
contracting division of labor. If railway freight is compromised at the
same time, the likelihood of power failures rises. 

Nobody in authority is talking about the relation of y2k and the electrical
power generators of the world. Yet there is no issue more critical to our
survival. 

I am making my personal plans based on what I understand. What I understand
is this: (1) there is not one compliant plant in the U.S.; (2) power plants
must be supplied with fuel, which requires trains (coal) or nuclear power;
(3) power plants rely on suppliers (up to 6,000); (4) things wear out; (5)
it takes power to generate power, i.e., the suppliers that make power
generation possible. In short, it takes the division of labor. I think the
division of labor will collapse in 2000. If the power grid goes completely
down, it will stay down. The division of labor will collapse to early 19th
century levels, except that we have lost early 19th century skills. This is
unthinkable, of course, but I keep thinking about it.